Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 73459.053258 77647.724814 81840.264062 86348.454453 91055.844468 95823.095923 101012.800676
2025-03-30 66961.116112 73386.367645 80002.158190 87313.517015 95157.277928 103309.727951 112413.736943
2025-04-06 61811.558647 69726.529962 78061.177677 87471.968305 97781.958979 108713.105958 121158.490126
2025-04-13 57681.082034 66676.694205 76330.018599 87426.745767 99796.362325 113126.917473 128544.562970
2025-04-20 55123.022560 65077.574111 75934.818663 88607.504087 102942.541548 118604.281132 136957.169379
2025-04-27 52966.509582 63732.219274 75646.714050 89744.184656 105899.530240 123764.294373 144940.518430
2025-05-04 50765.464212 62176.829076 74978.220553 90316.845052 108105.494876 127994.208575 151816.649294
2025-05-11 48511.825975 60425.391336 73962.633446 90376.021956 109624.707571 131367.471783 157663.353294
2025-05-18 46595.686393 58965.139654 73190.406820 90629.365806 111293.589670 134857.150174 163609.165411
2025-05-25 44784.342055 57538.758481 72376.032895 90756.839291 112751.189418 138055.659636 169189.703400
2025-06-01 43664.719657 56887.257888 72431.662693 91873.322483 115344.535253 142566.178990 176310.765026
2025-06-08 41979.952580 55471.234440 71501.263871 91744.226287 116401.467445 145229.401159 181232.587148
2025-06-15 41122.175380 55057.534782 71779.534971 93084.956865 119249.868852 150066.634039 188816.633188
2025-06-22 40076.080910 54365.952309 71682.677339 93941.084121 121498.273977 154190.746279 195574.578137
2025-06-29 38746.461467 53263.731340 71031.006269 94071.245678 122827.750342 157189.845817 200976.171389
2025-07-06 37411.409619 52104.611805 70262.942528 94014.779880 123893.741281 159847.929324 205957.669757
2025-07-13 36759.787681 51800.190798 70549.987407 95265.133941 126573.931257 164482.750207 213374.957714
2025-07-20 36128.378745 51494.859952 70813.856067 96470.034595 129190.936150 169046.434941 220729.179345
2025-07-27 35270.880447 50859.580815 70626.848273 97077.119445 131040.860122 172658.675778 226921.073978
2025-08-03 34225.031415 49938.430635 70038.315870 97139.839367 132179.318440 175374.729878 232002.245768
2025-08-10 33317.791373 49173.634631 69627.050082 97408.435179 133563.676486 178391.759547 237466.009847
2025-08-17 32399.837232 48364.889239 69131.547359 97543.581143 134759.433144 181163.839999 242627.422453
2025-08-24 31944.423656 48173.179839 69440.902800 98727.184691 137309.395019 185659.037192 249988.196507